Surveys and Election Forecasts in a World of Social Media and Party Dealignment

The survey results of the 2015 election are unlikely to be remembered favorably. The accuracy of the survey forecasts was disappointing, both in the forecasts based on the preelection polls as well as the exit polls reported on television with the closing of the voting stations. Though a substantial portion of the statistical deviations was not unprecedented, the forecasts failed the critical political test: the correct identifi cation of the party that would receive the most seats. Ultimately, for the public, the media and the academia, that is what counts.