ABSTRACT
Chapter 7 discusses techniques for estimating evacuation demand that can be used for transportation analyses. These techniques range in complexity from simple contingency tables (e.g., participation rates as a function of storm category and risk area) to the use of population synthesizers with statistical models in agent-based models. The discussion includes relevant aspects of scientifically defined risk area maps and alternative types of zones for communicating protective action recommendations. The chapter also includes information on the use of census data, synthesized populations, and evacuation surveys to supplement the data from research in producing site-specific forecasts of evacuation compliance, shadow evacuation, departure times, travel modes, destinations, and accommodations.
