ABSTRACT
Psychological factors have played a decisive role in the assessment of political trends and their prediction, yet until recently, they have been rarely investigated. The neuroscientists refer to optimism and pessimism bias. Western reactions to the Arab spring seem to justify the conclusions of the optimism bias theorists. The expectations were so high and almost unanimous reminding one of Wordsworth at the time of the French Revolution. Bliss was it to be alive in that dawnBut to be young was very heaven. Crises have their undoubted use—important decisions in the life of nations, especially if they were painful, are usually made as a result of a crisis, for in normal conditions, there seems to be no urgency to opt for change. Jean Monnet, the father of the European Union, rightly noted that crises are the great federators. Hope springs eternal is one of the most frequent quotations in English poetry.
