ABSTRACT

Benford's Law extends past the original observation of Newcomb insomuch that the second and subsequent digits converge rapidly to a uniform distribution. If we have a sufficiently detailed Bottom-up Estimate with a number of 'Trusted Source' inputs, then it may be appropriate to use Benford's Law to identify potential positive or negative bias in the constituent elements of the Bottom-up Estimate. At some stage doing that measurement process, we will reach the end of the piece of string. A Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) is a convenient means or summarising work and costs for management. Benford' s Law is a phenomenon that works best at the transactional level. We can count the number of occurrences that each first digit occurs and compare these with Benford's Law. If we had too many higher order values, this may be indicative of vendors submitting 'loss leaders' whereby there is a reasonable chance that they can recover this on change orders, follow-on orders, spares etc.