ABSTRACT
This chapter establish a Koyck distributed lag model, based on comparison and analysis of gasoline and diesel prices of China, Japan and the US. It discusses the long-term influence of gasoline and diesel prices on the passenger transport demand and the freight transport demand. The chapter analyzes the asymmetric influences of the historical highest price, price recovery and price fall on passenger transport demand and freight transport demand. Traditionally, demand models are built based on the implicit assumption that the response of demand on price rise and fall are symmetric. Regarding Japan, the price levels of both gasoline and diesel are the highest among the three countries, while price fluctuations of gasoline and diesel are between China and the US. The chapter reveals that, in market-oriented countries like Japan and the US, traffic demand is in negative relation with oil price.
