ABSTRACT
Marginal and critical parts of the region have already seen some degree of economic integration into national and global economies and thus are affected by the processes of globalisation and structural change. Using a time frame of about 30 years a number of trajectories of change are hypothesised. These include a continuance of the status quo, though in the short term as a result of current economic difficulties perhaps some reduction in the impact of 'outside' forces may be experienced. It is argued that temporary out-migration is a 'safety-valve' in the face of continued population growth, permitting the maintenance of a status quo in which people and resources are more or less in balance. The second trajectory is a downward spiral initiated by soil erosion on intensively cultivated sloping lands. A further, familiar downward spiral is that characterised by decreased forest or scrub fallows, over-exploitation of forest in the face of continued population growth and few employment opportunities outside the local economy. Major responses are discussed - the shift to perennial tree-crops, or in limited areas, teak, to intensive cropping, and to the adoption of opium. The article concludes by identifying a possible 'upward spiral' that would include tourism and other activities controlled by marginal peoples themselves. This outcome is likely to require affirmative governmental action and access capital, skills and other resources not likely to be available to most in the foreseeable future.
