ABSTRACT

This paper evaluates the predictive power of different responses given in the Finnish Business Tendency Survey (BTS) to forecast industrial production. The overall usefulness of surveys in predicting, e.g. aggregate industrial production has been confirmed in various studies in Finland and abroad (see EU report No. 7/1998). Here, we are in particular interested how helpful different business survey responses are for different industries. Since the predictive power differs quite a lot depending on industry, we try to select the most useful indicators for different industries and evaluate how much indicator value and predictive power is included into these questionairies.