ABSTRACT
Introduction Drought is a recurrent phenomenon in southern Africa that requires coping and adaptation in several sectors, including the agricultural sector. In southern Africa droughts are associated with sporadic rainfall that varies across time and space. Some droughts are localized while others are widespread; some mainly affect grass-production while others influence crop production (Hulley, 1980; NCAR, 1985; Wilhite, 2000). Coupled to this dynamically changing physical environment is the changing socioeconomic agricultural context in which farmers and households operate. Changes in drought-subsidy schemes, land reform changes, and rising production costs are some of the socio-economic realities that confront farmers in their daily decision-making environment (Van Zyl, Biswanger and Kirsten, 1996; Simbi, 1998). To respond flexibly in dynamic physical and social environments, farmers must be able to draw on a wide range of coping and adaptation strategies. One possible way in which farmers could increase their adaptive capacity is through the use of seasonal forecasts.In this chapter, we present a study that explores opportunistic management when drought conditions are either forecasted or actually occur for livestock farmers in the western parts of the North-West Province of South Africa. Specific details about drought management strategies used by farmers in the southern Kalahari are scarce, as are drought management responses between commercial and communal farmers living in this area (Freeman, 1984; Vogel, 1993, 1994). The role and uptake of seasonal
forecasts as a means of adapting to climate variability is explored. Responses to minimize the effects of short-and long-term drought are illustrated by two different approaches: commercial farmers tend to decrease herd size and maintain higher average weight on their livestock, while communal farmers tend to maintain their herd size and have lower weight per animal.Insight into the diversity of complex drought-coping strategies requires an understanding of the interaction of environmental and socio-economic factors within which management strategies are formulated in the region (e.g., Vogel, 2000; Patt, 2001; Phillips, Makaudza, Unganai, 2001). Results of this study should aid in the targeting and tailoring of forecasts for varied user groups. Data presented here are based on detailed field interviews of 25 commercial and 35 communal farmers. The farmers were interviewed during the winter and early spring of 1999.
