ABSTRACT
Introduction Seasonal forecasts are viewed as a management tool that can assist in improving resilience to rainfall variability and climate in general. Interest in forecast use has grown in southern Africa as the capacity to produce climate forecasts has improved (Mason, 1998; Bamston, Glantz, and He,1999). However, compared to developed countries, where research into climate forecast use has been extensive (Washington and Downing, 1999), there is still a large amount of material to be collected and interpreted in southern Africa. This is particularly true in terms of case studies on the use of climate information for specific sectors. One potential user group that has been largely ignored in research on forecast use is agribusiness.Agribusinesses, which represent part of the commercial agricultural sector, are likely to have access to both forecasts and resources for scientific interpretation of the information. On the one hand, it can be argued that these commercial users have the greatest capacity to adapt production to climate variability because of financial and technological resources. On the other hand, agribusinesses may not have the flexibility to respond to individual forecasts because they have a more rigid infrastructure and strict budgets that are tied to planning. Thus, climate forecasts could have great benefits for agribusinesses, but at the same time agribusinesses may face disproportionately large constraints to forecast use.In this chapter, the use and uptake of information from seasonal climate forecasts is examined for six agribusinesses and one water-resource management company in Swaziland. The agribusinesses include three sugar
cane estates, a forestry plantation, a citrus-fruit grower, and a cattle and game ranch.1 The results presented here form part of a wider assessment of the value of forecast information in southern and eastern Africa (Bohn,2000). The potential use of climate information is discussed, and constraints to the use and applicability of forecasts are highlighted. Swaziland serves as an ideal case study, as it covers a relatively small geographical area but has a varied topography and climate. Except for the forestry company, the agribusinesses studied are all found in the Lowveld region in the east of the country. The wet season in this region runs from October through March, and all sites receive between 600 and 750mm average annual rainfall. Forestry activities are usually located in the Middleveld region, which receives an annual average rainfall of 850 mm. Water resources are scarce enough in this region for their efficient use to be of concern.
