ABSTRACT
Introduction and Background A growing interest in the ability of science to provide information about the climate of the coming several months developed during the early 1990s. The interest reached a crescendo with the 1997/98 El Nino event, which attracted worldwide attention to climate extremes, the extent to which they were attributable to El Nino, and the extent to which they had been forecasted. One criticism of the information provided by the climate community is that, despite its potential, it often fails to meet user needs. Addressing this situation has thus become a priority within the forecasting community. The aim is to provide information that better matches user needs and is communicated in an understandable manner so that it can more effectively influence decisions and contribute to alleviating negative impacts of climate anomalies.Various activities could contribute to improving the fit between forecasts and user needs. These might include efforts to expand forecast products and accompanying multi-media products to explain them, and ongoing dialogs with user groups. The long-lead forecast component of the Malawi Environmental Management Project has enabled consideration of
how to better meet user needs in Malawi, and provided opportunity to make progress. This chapter mainly draws on some of the results of that project.First, we review the format of large-scale seasonal climate forecasts currently available and present their interpretation at smaller scales. Next, we provide examples of the types of information required by users in Malawi. These examples emerged from a survey,1 user workshops in Malawi, and subsequent interviews with decision-makers from a variety of sectors that explored in detail the types of products that were both needed and technically feasible. Finally, we discuss the types of forecast information that can be realistically generated in response to the user needs that were identified, and present some graphics as examples.
