ABSTRACT
This chapter uses various evaluation methodologies in order to assess the macro-economic impact of the structural adjustment programme in Malawi. The evaluation methods analysed are the 'before versus after' assessment; the 'plan versus actual' assessment; the 'with versus without' assessment; and regression analysis that breaks adjustment programmes down into their reform components. Institutional reforms strengthened the input of anti-reformists within the bureaucracy, particularly in the Ministry of Agriculture. The adjustment programme was designed to induce Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth largely through stimulating export-orientated growth from the key productive sector, agriculture and in particular the smallholder sub-sector where it was hoped that improved price incentives would stimulate investment, growth and exports. The major cause of the GDP growth rate decline was a sharp fall in both smallholder and estate output. The 'before versus after' and 'with versus without' evaluations also point to a positive impact on GDP growth, although the 'plan versus outcome' evaluation is negative for this variable.
