ABSTRACT
A key step in policy analysis is the systematic comparison of the potential policy outcomes. Policy analysts must predict the most likely consequences of each alternative, were it selected, and weigh its strengths and weaknesses in light of the criteria specified for the analysis. They must recommend the policy alternative—or, in some cases, alternatives—that best address the values and concerns denoted by the criteria. In this chapter we discuss ways of estimating the most likely outcomes of each alternative, and how these outcomes may be compared in light of the inevitable trade-offs. In estimating policy outcomes, we show how the outcomes must be assessed in light of the criteria developed for the analysis, and we emphasize the need to recognize the uncertainty that is inherent to policy analysis. To compare policy options, we show how a matrix can be used to assess their strengths and weaknesses and identify key trade-offs. We also discuss several strategies to simplify the analysis by eliminating certain alternatives and criteria from consideration. We also discuss how trade-offs may be weighed in process of choosing the alternative(s) to recommend. Throughout the chapter we emphasize the iterative quality of analysis—that difficulties in estimating and comparing outcomes can require the analysist to reconsider the alternatives and/or criteria. The chapter illustrates the process of analysis by comparing policy options for improving electoral participation and for reducing child support debt.
