ABSTRACT
Predictive modelling has many applications in sports, from assessing injury risk to evaluating tournament design. This chapter describes the use of regression-based models and how they can be used within simulation packages that generate probabilistic information useful to decision makers. Models are produced using historical data that should satisfy assumptions of the modelling techniques used. However, this chapter argues that violation of these assumptions is a modelling opportunity and describes how such features of sports performance can be incorporated into models. The process of producing the model and making predictions using simulation is discussed using the Rugby World Cup 2019 as an example.
