ABSTRACT
The importance of knowledge and awareness of different models of risk assessment, including actuarial and clinical methods, and structured clinical judgement.
Understanding of the advantages and limitations of actuarial and clinical methods of risk assessment.
Recognition of the way in which emotive factors influence judgements about risk.
Awareness of the affect heuristic: the stronger and more graphic the imagery, the greater the effect upon decision-making.
Aspects of our decision making are governed by impulsive, unconscious processes and aspects are influenced by conscious, effortful mental activity. We tend to be led by the former.
Factors typically considered to be associated with risk, such as victim empathy or remorse, are not in fact related, despite widespread assumption.
Intuition divorced from knowledge of the research and the individual’s history are likely to lead to distorted judgements.
Human behaviour is inherently unpredictable. Statistics are useful as a guide to the behaviour of a group, but they have limited utility when applied to an individual.
