ABSTRACT
After considering incomplete information games used to model bilateral crises and the record of cooperation between democracies, there are several reasons to suspect that advanced information technology might have more significant effects on deliberation within democratic coalitions than on usable knowledge for coercing crisis adversaries. Several model variations of the “chicken game” and case studies from the Cold War point to resolve rather than capability as the key unknown for determining an opponent’s reservation price. New information systems capture or analyze subtle disturbances in the electromagnetic field for physical not psychological presence. While knowing the physical disposition of the enemy-and wielding precise control over one’s own kinetic effects-provide a dramatic advantage in conventional engagements, transformational information systems are much less central to generating optimal crisis bargaining strategies. In crises, even a physically weak adversary can impose costs on the superior party.
