ABSTRACT
This chapter brings us to the main topic of this book: numerical or quantitative estimates of risk where we embrace numbers rather than run away from them. Quantitative risk analysis opens up the prospect of more straightforward and more transparent means of decision making and planning compared with the matrices and prioritisation of qualitative risk management. We are not arguing that quantitative is always right and qualitative is always wrong. The aim instead is to show that there is frequently a benefit in characterising risk numerically. And on that basis, all managers – not just risk managers – need to have some basic familiarity with the relevant concepts. It is important to understand what comprises the minimum tool kit which managers need to do this.
