ABSTRACT
Winning Party Average Election & % lead Gallup Harris MORI Marplan NOP ORC ICM error 1945 Lab 9.5 -3.5 - - - - - - 3.5 1950 Lab 3.8 -2.3 - - - - - - 2.3 1951 Lab 1.51 -4.0 - - - - - - 4.0 1955 C 2.0 1.5 - - - - - - 1.5 1959 C 4.2 -2.2 - - - -0.3 - - 1.3 1964 Lab 1.9 -0.1 - - - 1.2 - - 0.7 1966 Lab 7.3 3.7 - - - 1.7 - - 2.7 1970 C 2.3 -9.3 -4.3 - -11.9 -6.4 -1.3 - 6.6 1974(F) C 0.82 1.2 4.4 - 1.2 3.2 2.2 - 2.4 1974(O) Lab 3.5 2.0 4.9 - 6.2 -11.0 3.9 - 5.6 1979 C 7.1 -5.1 - 0.9 -0.6 -0.1 - - 1.7 1983 C 15.2 3.8 6.8 0.8 4.8 6.8 - - 4.6 1987 C 11.8 -4.8 -4.8 0.2 -4.8 -4.8 - - 3.9 1992 C 7.6 -7.1 -9.6 -8.6 - -10.6 - -7.6 8.7 1997 Lab 12.8 1.2 4.2 7.2 - 9.2 - -2.8 4.9
Rasmussen Populus YouGov 2001 Lab 9.3 7.7 1.7 5.7 - 7.7 - 1.7 4.9 2005 Lab 2.9 - - 2.1 3.1 0.1 2.1 3.1 2.1 1. Labour won 1.5% more votes in Great Britain than the Conservatives but the latter obtained a majority in
Poll covered error1 error1 error2 error on lead Gallup Poll 16 0.2 5.1 1.5 3.8 National Opinion Polls 13 0.1 6.8 1.9 4.9 Marplan 6 0.1 6.7 1.9 4.9 Harris Poll 7 0.2 4.8 1.9 5.6 MORI 7 0.1 4.8 1.3 3.6 Opinion Research Centre 3 0.3 2.3 1.1 2.5 ICM 4 0.7 4.8 1.3 3.8 Rasmussen 1 0.3 2.0 1.4 1.7 Populus 1 0.9 1.9 1.4 3.1 YouGov 1 0.9 1.4 1.2 2.1 1. These figures are based on the forecasts for Conservatives and Labour only. 2. These figures are based on the forecasts for Conservative, Labour, Liberal (SDP/Liberal Alliance 1983-87;
