ABSTRACT
China has 22 percent of the world’s population but only 7 percent of its arable land. The best cropland lies along its great river valleys and deltas, where most cities are located. Expanding cities are absorbing farmland, which, according to the government, is disappearing at a rate of 1.5 percent annually. The question of whether or not China can feed itself was hotly debated in the mid-1990s after Lester Brown presented his apocalyptic vision of a China incapable of feeding itself by the year 2030. Brown’s argument was based on the rapid conversion of croplands into urban space, so much so, he said, that it will not be possible for China to improve yields on the diminishing land fast enough to counteract land losses. The government responded that China was capable of feeding itself and by the year 2030 would be producing 640 million tons of grain per year, enough to feed its expected population of 1.6 billion.
