ABSTRACT
Uncertainty perception impacts many of our decisions and actions. It is core to many organisational and individual decisions, and yet so often we get it wrong. The fan diagram made the experts more aware of the uncertainty and they gave this more frequently as a reason for their decision making. The hearing aid manufacturer leaps into action after perceiving uncertainty. The approach to displaying the uncertainty around the available information impacted the confidence levels and the line of reasoning the experts gave for their estimates. The surprising observation in this study was that the people who chose their own lottery ticket stated a higher confidence in having the winning ticket than their co-participants who were simply handed a ticket. The researchers argued that if this feedback happens repeatedly, they would eventually come close enough to the expected confidence value. Some psychology researchers were not so convinced by the practical value of this assumption.
