ABSTRACT

Scenarios have a variety of uses within the corporation to help departments to design products and services and plan aspects of the business. Here the focus is on the role that scenarios can play in the formulation of business strategy. The process of constructing the scenarios initiates a rich loosely structured debate leading to snapshots of the future. It can be a powerful tool if done well but can also give dangerously deluded results if regarded as an accurate portrayal of the future. The process of scenario generation should be kept separate to the other aspects of the strategic process. This separation avoids wishful thinking or belief that it is possible to control factors outside the corporation's control. Scenarios are not changed to fit conveniently the strategy as it emerges but held firm as reference points frozen until there is another deep re-evaluation to generate new scenarios.