ABSTRACT
This chapter covers number of interrelated issues. First, attention is given to what is known as traditional analysis and this is followed by effects-based analysis and modelling. It is clear that there is a high level of interdependency among the systems that make up Critical Information Infrastructure (CII). Psychologically, simulations and models offer a possible means of side-stepping the complexity by referring it back to the machines that made it, but this neat solution may be dangerously short-sighted. Power lines which once had their own private network of process control wiring may now rely on wireless internet signals, and so on. The black box model assumes broadly that: at one or more stages in the process, my data or transaction disappears into/emerges from a black box. The key is to manage sensibly, and to ensure that the protection in place is both adequate in the short term and sustainable in the long term.
