ABSTRACT
This chapter provides a framework that would provide a structure for risk discourse. It talks about Turner's Disaster Incubation Theory model and addresses it as a tool designed to encourage foresight. The chapter looks at the issue of a controlling mind when considering counteracting movements within a crisis and discusses the utility of hindsight to developing foresight. Cohen and Gooch provide a clear definition of what they mean by the term 'misfortune'. The chapter explores the parallels between military misfortune and its civilian counterpart. Cohen and Gooch state that the outcome of the battle depended on one commander reacting faster and more effectively than the other to the unexpected. They propose a framework as a way of establishing "pathways to misfortune", which they refer to as a 'Matrix of Failure'. The matrix consists of two dimensions namely; critical task and command levels against which they map where there were failures of a critical task within particular command levels.
