ABSTRACT
This chapter describes a method, inspired by Barry Turner's Disaster Incubation Theory, to promote foresight. The focus of the research is the failure of foresight; to be more accurate, it is how we may prevent such failures. It has started to explore the multifaceted nature of any system and the complex relationships between its parts. These relationships are truly complex and they can generate many unexpected outcomes, some of which are very significant and disruptive but many are manageable as part of everyday business. Such chaos can therefore be considered to be the norm. Within this paradigm, a paradigm of normal chaos, we can start to understand that foresight may be both fleeting and fragile. With practice, experience, suitable technology and better data, we may improve our forecasting. However, the chapter looks at weather forecasting to realise how far we still have to go and they do not have to cope with the pernicious human factor.
