ABSTRACT
This chapter discusses three main areas: modeling techniques, forecasting and the analytical methods that are used to examine and hopefully validate them. It also describes the four model types; each devised using different levels of complexity and data sources. The purpose of a model and its associated forecasts is to create a quantitative estimate of the future value of an asset. In making models to address international markets the broadest available data on disease occurrence can be found through the World Health Organization (WHO). The second model starts from the point of using epidemiological data as the basis for estimating the number of patients who suffer from a particular disease. The third model type introduces more complexity and with it the concept of a treatment algorithm. It includes competitor products and the effects of pricing. A fourth but less often used model, because of the expense and maintenance time required to make it effective, is the life cycle-based approach.
