ABSTRACT
This chapter presents a better way to look at project activity durations, as probability distributions of possible duration or estimates of days the work may take for each uncertain activity. Uncertainty in duration estimation is usually greater early in the project when fewer facts are known fewer decisions are made and less information has been finalized than will be the case later as the project takes more form and shape. Activity durations are traditionally estimated with knowledge of the work to be done, the resources likely to be made available for the task, the productivity of those resources and the degree of reliance on others in completing the task among other factors. The triangular distribution is used in many cases because it represents a greater amount of uncertainty in the most likely duration than the beta does.
