ABSTRACT

This chapter discusses various risk modelling examples. One of them is spread duration risks, which most often occur as productivity variations due, for example, to labour output or process overload. In this example the risk modelling recognises the reality that the four-week duration for the appointment in the plan is an aspiration. The advanced versions of Risk Modelling Tool (RMT) often provide a distribution fitting tool, which will generate the closest RMT function to the data, effectively taking away from the analyst the interim task of generating a histogram. This is a very powerful tool that nicely reveals why advanced RMT's have many more risk functions than one may think will be needed for risk modelling. The histogram is the data and the curve is the fitted distribution. The chapter reviews and possibly revises the emulation and the mapping of the risks, and refers cross-linking time risk functions in any form as time spreaders.