ABSTRACT

Overconfidence in decision-makers is one of the major reasons why analysis is either not performed or the results of analysis are ignored and is one of the most common biases in project management. Confirmation bias is one of the reasons that people do not perform a proper analysis. Optimism bias is a tendency to be overoptimistic about the outcome of planned actions. Psychological research shows that most people are overly optimistic about the outcome of planned actions. It is called the optimism bias or planning fallacy. Optimism bias is a mental error which is very hard to overcome. Overconfidence in quality and quantity of resources, both human and financial, is one of the most common mental errors in project management. Overconfidence is a psychological bias in which people tend to overestimate the accuracy of their predictions.