ABSTRACT
This chapter examines the future developments of oil and gas from 1981 onwards. It compares a number of different estimates and considers where they diverge in terms of assumption and methodology. First is the question of what the total stock of oil reserves. Secondly the likely production profile. Finally the pattern of total revenues accrues to the government. The fact that the estimates of Robinson and Odell are so different might lead one to suspect that they had used radically different approaches or methodologies. In assessing total oil stocks it would obviously be a mistake to concentrate solely on the North Sea basin. The Rockall trough is an area equal in size to the North Sea basin and it has some very good geological prospects. The government revenues which are generated in the oil sector depend obviously on the structure of the prevailing tax system.
