ABSTRACT

The main objective of this chapter is to synthesize the proposed relationships between the independent and dependent variables. The hypothetical relationships are integrated in the form of causal models, of a kind that can be evaluated empirically. Complex causal models show the determinants of each of the three primary variables in the basic theoretical model: the potential for collective violence, the potential for political violence, and the magnitude of political violence. Then a process model of political violence is developed deductively from some of the proposed relationships. The two hypotheses about the forms of political violence are: the likelihood of turmoil varies inversely with proportion of value classes affected by intense relative deprivation; and the likelihood of conspiracy varies with the intensity of participatory value deprivation. The magnitude of political violence is likely to be greatest when regimes and their rebellious opponents are more or less evenly matched in coercive control and institutional support.