ABSTRACT
On December 8, 1941, the “Day of Infamy” as Americans call it, the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor. The first cycle of US—Japan relations, from Commodore Perry (1853—54) to Pearl Harbor 1941, had four relatively clear phases: The exposure phase; The imitation phase; The conflict phase; and The war phase. Both Japan and the USA were parties to the economic phases, but that is not necessarily the case for the political phases. Japan and the USA each got the war they were probably seeking. The second Japan—USA phase of the Pacific War 1931—45 lasted less than half the first: from Manchuria to Pearl Harbor, ten years; from there to ceasefire, not even four years. To explain Pearl Harbor the key factors are the level 3 permanents structure and culture. Then, level 2 trends were ominous but could have been detected. The level 1 events were produced by the interaction between levels 2 and 3.
