ABSTRACT
The point at which an economic reconstruction period ends can, in our view, be determined via the trendline of undisturbed economic development. In cases where war is the only disturbing factor, the trendline, as in the case of Japan, is clearly recognizable. If, however, economic development is interrupted by several disturbances, the trendline becomes much more difficult to determine, and the more so, the more rapidly the succession of disturbances occurs. If, for example, three disturbances follow one another at long enough intervals to permit a return to the trendline after each one of them, the trendline remains easily recognizable (see Fig. 9, Case A). However, if the disturbances follow so closely that their effects partly overlap, no immediate point of reference for the trendline can be found for the period between the first and the last disturbance (see Fig. 9, Case B). Production-level line and trendline in the case of: https://s3-euw1-ap-pe-df-pch-content-public-p.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/9781315638430/2bf248b1-4d93-4e12-a260-667e842a8708/content/fig9_B.tif" xmlns:xlink="https://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"/> (A)three separate disturbances, and (B)three overlapping disturbances.
