ABSTRACT
Introduction The lack of arable land or freshwater has a great impact on a country’s economy. This chapter focuses on economic conditions mediating the relationship between natural resources and conflict. A review of case studies and the relevant quantitative studies yields three main theoretical arguments that have been closely linked to peace and conflict. The first argument focuses on economic development, in particular poverty and dependence on agriculture, the second focuses on dependence on exports and the third on the impact of economic diversification. I analyse the impact of these conditions in a fsQCA of 30 countries with low levels of freshwater or arable land or both (for details on research method and case selection see Chapter 1). The analyses here will include seven conditions: economic development, dependence on agriculture, poverty (development conditions), dependence on exports, dependence on natural resources, dependence on oil (dependence conditions) and economic diversification (diversification condition). I argue that there are two types of countries that experience conflict: first, least developed countries with high levels of subsistence agriculture and few other opportunities to generate revenue. Secondly, countries that have some oil but where the revenue from that oil is too low for oil to have a stabilizing function. I also identify two types of countries that remain peaceful: first, countries are peaceful when they are not highly dependent on agriculture but have high levels of exports. This pathway describes industrialized countries that are well-integrated into the global economy. Second, countries with low levels of poverty, small agricultural dependence and low levels of oil are also peaceful. This pathway describes mostly industrialized Western countries. Generally, the results show that while least developed countries experience conflict, highly developed countries do not. The results are less straight forward for the impact of trade and oil, although they tend to support the arguments that both trade and high levels of resource revenue are sufficient conditions for peace.
