ABSTRACT
The most unobservant person must have noticed that trade has a certain rhythmical fluctuation. Close observation shows that periods of good and bad trade alternate with remarkable regularity. If a curve is drawn accurately representing the trade of any country, it will be found that the curve moves upwards and downwards instead of progressing steadily. This movement from a position of good trade downwards to a position of bad trade and upwards again to trade recovery is sometimes called a " cycle of trade," and the cycle is usually completed in about ten years. Thus, in 1881-2 trade was good. It declined and became very bad in 1885-6. It then recovered, and in 1890 was very good again. Depression then set in, and in 1893-4 trade was again bad. Then came recovery, and in 1899-1900 trade was very good. Again came depression, followed by recovery and good trade in 1907, when again there ensued depression and the bad trade of 1908-9. Becovery is, as I write (late in 1909), making itself evident, and in a year or two trade will be very good again. It will be seen that the top points of the trade cycles are separated by about ten years.
