ABSTRACT
This Chapter examines the dynamics of the new phase of emigration prospectively. This is attempted by projecting the emigration trends based on the National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) data for 1993–1994 and 2007–2008 into the present — 2011 — and then the future — 2021 and 2031. The chapter shows that given the large number of imponderables, any projection beyond 2021 can be widely off the mark. NSSO data represent the stock figures of emigrants from which the flow can be estimated. The projections in respect of Kerala, therefore, can be validated by reference to the Kerala Migration Surveys (KMS) data. This, hopefully, will interpret the pan-India projections based on NSSO data better. The NSSO estimates were first scaled up to match the KMS data and then projections were made on the basis of the logistical growth model. This may be called the KMS-adjusted growth scenario.
