ABSTRACT
In the last analysis, can the unification of China be realized or not? Leaving aside what we hear from ignorant and presumptuous people such as Zhang Shaozeng 1 , everyone understands that it is impossible in the near future. There is no way in which the various influential factions within the country can be made to unite at present. Union is, of course, not the same as just mixing them together, so for the present such things as “meetings of the provinces,” “consultative conferences on national affairs,” or even sending delegates to consult the leaders of the various factions are nothing but empty talk. If we analyze the influential factions within the country, there are only three: the revolutionary democratic faction, the nonrevolutionary democratic faction, and the reactionary faction. The main body of the revolutionary democratic faction is, of course, the Guomindang; the rising Communist faction is cooperating with it. 2 Formerly, the nonrevolutionary democratic 158faction consisted of the Progressive Party. 3 The Progressive Party having been disbanded, its only direct descendant for the moment is the Research clique. 4 The faction of the rising intellectual class, [led by] Hu Shi, 5 Huang Yanpei, 6 and others, and the faction of the rising commercial class, [led by] Nie Yuntai, 7 Mu Ouchu, 8 and others also belong to this faction. The reactionary faction is the most extensive and comprises the Zhili, 9 the Fengtian, 10 and the Anhui 11 159cliques. (Although for the moment, the Fengtian and Anhui cliques are cooperating with the Guomindang, this cannot last long, for they are after all the most reactionary.) Of these three factions, the first two will wish to cooperate henceforth for a certain period. Because the reactionary forces confronting them are extremely great, the Research clique, as well as the intellectual and commercial factions, will temporarily abandon their nonrevolutionary views and cooperate with the revolutionary Guomindang, just as the Communist Party has temporarily abandoned its most radical views in order to cooperate with the relatively radical Guomindang. So in the future, the political situation in China will take the following form: on the one hand, the most advanced Communist faction and the moderate Research clique, intellectual faction, and commercial faction will all cooperate with the Guomindang to form a great democratic faction in order to overthrow their common enemies; on the other hand, there will be the reactionary warlord faction. The outcome of this political situation in China will be the victory of the democratic faction over the warlord faction, but in the immediate future and for a certain period, China will necessarily continue to be the realm of the warlords. Politics will become even darker, the financial situation will become even more chaotic, the armies will further proliferate, industry and education will become yet more stagnant, the methods for the oppression of the people will become even more terrible. To put it bluntly, the mask of democracy will be further ripped off, completely reactionary feudal politics will be imposed, and this kind of situation may last for a period of eight or ten years.
