ABSTRACT
Today the west not only acknowledges but openly proclaims that a stable, independent Ukraine acts as a 'pivot' in European security. Ukraine's relationship with Russia, once menacing, is now merely unsatisfactory. Russian policy makers were beginning to discern a connection between three variables: the viability of the multinational Russian federation, the strength of 'integration processes' in the former USSR, and the standing of Russia in the west. There is no great controversy in stating that Kuchma's policy is dictated by internal constraints as well as by external, geopolitical ones. In the minds of some Ukrainians, the combination of Russia's weakness and diplomatic skill means that the pressure can be surreptitious enough to avoid a European crisis, not to say a western response. The most salient geopolitical fact is that Russia is unlikely to reemerge as the dominant factor in central or southeastern Europe unless it reincorporates Ukraine into a Russian empire.
