ABSTRACT
The primary Continental European powers in 1914-the “great powers” of France, Germany, Austria and Russia-each faced a dilemma. With tensions among them running high for a variety of reasons, each knew that whoever mobilized first for war would possess a powerful strategic advantage should war actually break out. Given the technology of warfare and transportation at the time, the mobilization of armies took weeks. Troops had to be mustered, armed and collected at disembarkation points, food and ammunition supplies gathered, and transportation networks coordinated to move men and material to the places conflict was most likely. It was also understood that being the first to mobilize meant that any war would be fought on someone else’s territory, and it was also understood that mobilization signaled a belief that war was imminent, since no country could afford to maintain an indefinite state of mobilization without seriously damaging morale, its economy and perhaps even the survivability of its regime. Thus, while all states might have preferred to avoid war (a questionable assumption in the case of Austria), the current system of alliances was all that was needed to ensure that the dilemma was played out fully: If Austria attacked Serbia, Russia was bound to defend Serbia. Germany was not only allied to Austria in its defense, but was concerned that if it waited too long for the inevitable conflict to arise, Russia would complete the building-out and upgrading of its rail system, making mobilization of that giant even easier. France, in turn, was allied with Russia and in any conflict between Germany and Russia that led to German mobilization, France could not lag because Germany remained France’s arch enemy and primary strategic threat. Britain was not tied firmly to any of these alliances, but it was the primary guarantor of Belgian neutrality, and it was through Belgium that Germany was most likely to advance on France. The Kaiser’s decision, moreover, to upgrade Germany’s fleet was, from the British perspective, a form of mobilization to which it was especially sensitive.
