ABSTRACT

This chapter discusses the concept of property cycles and informs the property developer about the theory behind property cycle behaviour. Surprisingly 'cycles' are traditionally much more complex than at first may be anticipated. It has been demonstrated that there is substantial heterogeneity in terms of duration, amplitude and co-movements. The nature of the property market, the behaviour of the stakeholders and the process of property development, collectively form an ideal environment for property cycles. A starting point for property cycle analysis is to consider this statement: 'everything on the planet and including the planet will return to dust', especially in light of the built environment which form a major component of a property development. The interaction of the short-run business cycle with property cycles creates great variability in a developer's plans and the ability to progress schemes at different times.