Delphi technique

As uncertainty increases decision-making becomes more difficult. Previous chapters of this book have argued that criminal justice agencies are subject to economic stringencies and face reform pressures exerted by governments. Chief officers and senior managers, under conditions of crisis, often have short planning horizons and may formulate strategies that serve themselves rather than the public’s best interests (Linstone, 2002). While the range of solutions to be considered can be large, chief officers can reduce their attentional focus and resort to trusted and tried solutions, thereby narrowing down and avoiding more creative possibilities. The Delphi technique offers a decision-making method to dispel uncertainty and increase consideration of a wide range of alternatives. Developed in the late 1940s by the RAND Corporation, the Delphi method is a way to solicit expert opinion and achieve a consensus. In essence there are a series of sequential questionnaires or ‘rounds’ interspersed by controlled feedback that seek agreement from a group of experts (Powell, 2003). There are four key features of the method:

anonymity of the expert participants in order that they may freely express their opinions;

ability to refine views in the light of information received;

receipt of controlled feedback to inform participants of the collective’s views; and

statistical collation of responses.

Informal methods attempting to gain some unanimity of view are prone to domination by powerful individuals or bias through particular personality traits or seniority. The Delphi method avoids these pitfalls and has been adopted many thousands of times on a whole range of problem areas, particularly in the health sector (Powell, 2002). Criminal justice applications are exemplified by:

effects of a declining economy on crime and the criminal justice system (Wright, 1982);

strategic policy development in the police (Loo, 2002);

future developments in crime trends (Loyens et al., 2011);

improving the care of aging prisoners (Patterson et al., 2014);

identification of key professionals who can undertake case formulation of personality disorder offenders (Völlm, 2014).

In this chapter we briefly describe the Delphi technique, draw attention to its strengths and weakness, and present a detailed case study examining how in practical terms the police service can instil organisational justice regimes in the workplace.