ABSTRACT
This chapter summarizes some of the research bearing upon the hypothesis and will evaluate its implications for the processes of organizing attitudes and beliefs. If the hypothesis is valid, then deviations from the laws of probability may reflect temporary cognitive inconsistencies among the cognitions involved. Such inconsistencies could occur for several reasons. The sorts of inconsistencies that exist among a set of cognitions are often unpredictable and may be interpreted as “random cognitive error.” Substantial support has, in fact, been obtained for the existence of the Socratic effect when subjective probability models are used to describe cognitive organization. Several other direct tests of the accuracy of mathematical probability laws in describing the relations among beliefs and attitudes have been reported by the present author and his colleagues. However, there is some evidence that it generalizes to other laws implied by the general hypothesis that relations among cognitions are described by the law of mathematical probability.
