ABSTRACT
To understand why democratic outcomes are influenced by the transitional process, it is necessary to advance a theory to explain the success rate of democratic transitions. Transitions are complex historical events and to fully understand them requires an exploration of the mechanisms at play among political elites during the transitional process. In doing so, we are able to link the specific events occurring within a transition, such as the relative power advantage among incumbents and opposition groups, and demonstrate how this leads to divergent outcomes; this is our theoretical point of departure from the existing literature. Thus, for transitions to have any meaningful purpose they must help us better understand why democracy succeeds in some cases and fails in others. In a broader context, unpacking the mechanisms of democratic transitions provides us with the leverage necessary to determine the chances for sustainable democracy. Where circumstances are unfavorable, we can also then better understand how to hedge authoritarian reversion.
