Breadcrumbs Section. Click here to navigate to respective pages.
Chapter
Chapter
scto th ara ti rsetc ic te s d ( M mo OdSe ) l . f S or m ec it ahstadnad ta are called model output 1994). The state of ENSO is only one of many factors obs terevveedn SS gi T v en a perfect SRSoTp el feow re sckais ( t 1 -9 9i7 .e ) ., shtohweu (K se r d is hn to aKfuom re acrae st t al t . h1e99I5n ) d . ian summer monsoon m to oid ts elEuNsS ed O -a r t -N t C he E P cu rrent operational atmospheric Ward et al. (1993) discuss the useful level of skill In their study e , la ftoerd ty r -a fi i need vne fa lylspastu te brsn ta snfto ia rlpa ra d c ju ti sctamleun se ts . m of a d tr eop in ic a re l al n o ti r m th e A by f ri tchaenU fo KreM ca e st tse or th ol aotgihcaavleOb ff eiecnee (h xianm dc in aesd ts ) fo bra se th d e on specif e ie a d rs ( oofbsseeravseodn ) alSS fo Trew ca esrtess re in la ctei on 1s9h8i6p . swTih th esgeloabrael ly ladrigsetlry ib ubtaesdedSSoTn , SS st Tatiin st itchaelm ea o ch d el sism imulation wapserrieopde at 1e9d50 th -i 9r4 te . enEa ti cmh es s , e w as hoenraelpSoonue th n t. A O tla vnetrict , hean la dstade re claad ti e v , eltyhesm re aalll -ti EmNeSfOo re ccoam sts u initial co unldaitt io io nnswatso st easrttiemdatwe ith th e s lig mha tl gynid tu if dfee ren otfvhaalviedah te addahisnkdic ll asstismim lar adteotwhiatthotbhtea in seadme fr osm ta t c is rto ic sasl -v av anrp ia re ti doincs ta ble and therefore random atmospheric methods. The chief limitation to further progress is a rai enrfaag ll edf or tion th ca elcm ul oad te e l. thTehebtehsitr te meondseilmeus la ti t m io antseao re flsaecaksoonf ( gJluonbeal th tr roopu ic gahlSSeSpTtefm or beecra ) s . tsAvcaclu id ra f te orfo th re ecawse ts ttgylpoibcaall ly v , a a ri l th ea ocuhghgitvheen seasonal SST pattern. Quite of ENSO would help, but would in most years be well, it sho at w io ends in sem as oodneall re ra piln ic fa altledpa th tt eeronbs se qruvietdeifn al sluffo fi rceiceanst. tsAatrmeoaslp so heu ri scedd , ynbaumtitchaely -m oondleyl -h baavseedusreaf in ul T re hgu io s ns fo rofptrheec ip w it s a ystematic or tlido , n -t rhee la tmesdpaa ti pap ll l y ic var odel pre a d ti i o ct nys in g in biases. skill with lead times of a month or less before the require some kind ions wmoaun ld y r th ai antf al hlusm ea asnoin ty ( Fhoa ll sanidncerteaals . ed1 99 th 1 e ). Istuisscaelpsto ib p il o it s y si b o le f g ki ennderoaf te bdi as byadajuM stm OS ofteacdhjnuisqtumee . n T ts h , e perhaps those tropical west Africa to drought through the pro production of operat einot places a huge bnue rd ed en foorntthhiesg co re vsesrivoevreerdu re c c ti eonntd in ecnaedaers -. coTahsitsalcw ha e n st geAfirn ic a th nefolraensdtM because each time the m na oldd el y n is a m ch ic aanlge fo d r , eacansetwmsoedteo ls f s (e u . r g fa ., ceElb ta ohuinrdaan ry dhGaosnbgee1n99s6 ho ) w to nhbayve se v th e e ra lpo au te tnhtoirasla ne O ed S e statistics must be calculated to provide the to weaken the north African monsoon. More studies nneacleys si d sa s ad ojfu ry Msm tm u e lt n id ts e . c T ad h a is l re en qu se ir m es bltehsetgoe ne orbatta io in natnhdetorfopp ic oasls ib nloer th re g A io fr n ic aalnarnatihnrfo al p l, ogaesniwce ll inafs lu efnocr es on fundamental OiSmp st rao ti vse ti m cs enatnsdtuond th eerssecom re osdtehles , nseuecdh fo as r reg W ion ar sdwe it thaml. a ( r 1 gi 9n9a3l ) seaalssoonadlisrcau in sfsaltlh , e a re sk n il eleo de odt . her tahboosvee . related to the flux adjustments, discussed m tim ad eefboy re c th a e st sff real UK orM th et eeon ro olro th g e ic aasltOBfrfaizcielsw in ectes1e9 as 8o7n . dro Kungohwt le p d re gdeico ti fonEsNS in O m is a n in ysup ff airctisenotffotrher eg w io o n rl adlT se hviesreisa relatively dry area, subject to intermittent lbeescsaium se p o in rt a th n ese regions its influence is either small or Hastenr dartohuagnhdt. c T ol hleasbeorfao to re rs c a ( set . s g , ., asHw as etlelnarsatthho1s9e95b ) y , p ea ro st foBurnad zil an t than other factors. For instance, north are mainly statistical, although real-time dynamical patterns ( lFyo ll iandf lu west A nd eentcael. d frican w 19 b9y1 , H tro ept ic saela so Ant la ra nitn ic fa ll astenrath 1995, WSaSrTeM for eetceaosrtosl og hiacvae ard based on tropi lcbaOlAfefe ic n e . mTahdee st saitn is ctei cal 19f9o4 re ca bsy ts tahreeS1S9T 97 ) i . n In th aeddtirtoipoinc , aplaIrn ts d i of the Sahel are affected by on ENSO SSTs. On tl aanv ti ecraSgSeT , t a ro npoim ca allyAp tl aatn te ti rcnsSaSnTdsF Si o m ll i a la nrd ly , eltocaall . SS 19 T9p1a , tt Bar anns to Onceaannd (P Sam lm ith er11999866 ). , h re agvieonaboofuSt ou tw th ic Aem th e e ri cian , fl aule th nocue gh ofexEtN re SmOeE fo NrStOhs is , A no urstth ra w li eas , tnooftA ab ulsyt ra ilniatih er e ns influence precipitation in such as that in 1982-3, can dominate the circulation Drosdowsky 1993, F n re d th IendA ia uns tr O al c ia enanw north and and precipitation patterns over tropical South ericksen and i B nt aelrgo ( v e. ign . d , A sis m te e n ri t c ly a . h T ig hhe le r v ea el l -t o im f e sk iflol, resc im as itlsarhtaovethhaatdobatac in oend
DOI link for scto th ara ti rsetc ic te s d ( M mo OdSe ) l . f S or m ec it ahstadnad ta are called model output 1994). The state of ENSO is only one of many factors obs terevveedn SS gi T v en a perfect SRSoTp el feow re sckais ( t 1 -9 9i7 .e ) ., shtohweu (K se r d is hn to aKfuom re acrae st t al t . h1e99I5n ) d . ian summer monsoon m to oid ts elEuNsS ed O -a r t -N t C he E P cu rrent operational atmospheric Ward et al. (1993) discuss the useful level of skill In their study e , la ftoerd ty r -a fi i need vne fa lylspastu te brsn ta snfto ia rlpa ra d c ju ti sctamleun se ts . m of a d tr eop in ic a re l al n o ti r m th e A by f ri tchaenU fo KreM ca e st tse or th ol aotgihcaavleOb ff eiecnee (h xianm dc in aesd ts ) fo bra se th d e on specif e ie a d rs ( oofbsseeravseodn ) alSS fo Trew ca esrtess re in la ctei on 1s9h8i6p . swTih th esgeloabrael ly ladrigsetlry ib ubtaesdedSSoTn , SS st Tatiin st itchaelm ea o ch d el sism imulation wapserrieopde at 1e9d50 th -i 9r4 te . enEa ti cmh es s , e w as hoenraelpSoonue th n t. A O tla vnetrict , hean la dstade re claad ti e v , eltyhesm re aalll -ti EmNeSfOo re ccoam sts u initial co unldaitt io io nnswatso st easrttiemdatwe ith th e s lig mha tl gynid tu if dfee ren otfvhaalviedah te addahisnkdic ll asstismim lar adteotwhiatthotbhtea in seadme fr osm ta t c is rto ic sasl -v av anrp ia re ti doincs ta ble and therefore random atmospheric methods. The chief limitation to further progress is a rai enrfaag ll edf or tion th ca elcm ul oad te e l. thTehebtehsitr te meondseilmeus la ti t m io antseao re flsaecaksoonf ( gJluonbeal th tr roopu ic gahlSSeSpTtefm or beecra ) s . tsAvcaclu id ra f te orfo th re ecawse ts ttgylpoibcaall ly v , a a ri l th ea ocuhghgitvheen seasonal SST pattern. Quite of ENSO would help, but would in most years be well, it sho at w io ends in sem as oodneall re ra piln ic fa altledpa th tt eeronbs se qruvietdeifn al sluffo fi rceiceanst. tsAatrmeoaslp so heu ri scedd , ynbaumtitchaely -m oondleyl -h baavseedusreaf in ul T re hgu io s ns fo rofptrheec ip w it s a ystematic or tlido , n -t rhee la tmesdpaa ti pap ll l y ic var odel pre a d ti i o ct nys in g in biases. skill with lead times of a month or less before the require some kind ions wmoaun ld y r th ai antf al hlusm ea asnoin ty ( Fhoa ll sanidncerteaals . ed1 99 th 1 e ). Istuisscaelpsto ib p il o it s y si b o le f g ki ennderoaf te bdi as byadajuM stm OS ofteacdhjnuisqtumee . n T ts h , e perhaps those tropical west Africa to drought through the pro production of operat einot places a huge bnue rd ed en foorntthhiesg co re vsesrivoevreerdu re c c ti eonntd in ecnaedaers -. coTahsitsalcw ha e n st geAfirn ic a th nefolraensdtM because each time the m na oldd el y n is a m ch ic aanlge fo d r , eacansetwmsoedteo ls f s (e u . r g fa ., ceElb ta ohuinrdaan ry dhGaosnbgee1n99s6 ho ) w to nhbayve se v th e e ra lpo au te tnhtoirasla ne O ed S e statistics must be calculated to provide the to weaken the north African monsoon. More studies nneacleys si d sa s ad ojfu ry Msm tm u e lt n id ts e . c T ad h a is l re en qu se ir m es bltehsetgoe ne orbatta io in natnhdetorfopp ic oasls ib nloer th re g A io fr n ic aalnarnatihnrfo al p l, ogaesniwce ll inafs lu efnocr es on fundamental OiSmp st rao ti vse ti m cs enatnsdtuond th eerssecom re osdtehles , nseuecdh fo as r reg W ion ar sdwe it thaml. a ( r 1 gi 9n9a3l ) seaalssoonadlisrcau in sfsaltlh , e a re sk n il eleo de odt . her tahboosvee . related to the flux adjustments, discussed m tim ad eefboy re c th a e st sff real UK orM th et eeon ro olro th g e ic aasltOBfrfaizcielsw in ectes1e9 as 8o7n . dro Kungohwt le p d re gdeico ti fonEsNS in O m is a n in ysup ff airctisenotffotrher eg w io o n rl adlT se hviesreisa relatively dry area, subject to intermittent lbeescsaium se p o in rt a th n ese regions its influence is either small or Hastenr dartohuagnhdt. c T ol hleasbeorfao to re rs c a ( set . s g , ., asHw as etlelnarsatthho1s9e95b ) y , p ea ro st foBurnad zil an t than other factors. For instance, north are mainly statistical, although real-time dynamical patterns ( lFyo ll iandf lu west A nd eentcael. d frican w 19 b9y1 , H tro ept ic saela so Ant la ra nitn ic fa ll astenrath 1995, WSaSrTeM for eetceaosrtosl og hiacvae ard based on tropi lcbaOlAfefe ic n e . mTahdee st saitn is ctei cal 19f9o4 re ca bsy ts tahreeS1S9T 97 ) i . n In th aeddtirtoipoinc , aplaIrn ts d i of the Sahel are affected by on ENSO SSTs. On tl aanv ti ecraSgSeT , t a ro npoim ca allyAp tl aatn te ti rcnsSaSnTdsF Si o m ll i a la nrd ly , eltocaall . SS 19 T9p1a , tt Bar anns to Onceaannd (P Sam lm ith er11999866 ). , h re agvieonaboofuSt ou tw th ic Aem th e e ri cian , fl aule th nocue gh ofexEtN re SmOeE fo NrStOhs is , A no urstth ra w li eas , tnooftA ab ulsyt ra ilniatih er e ns influence precipitation in such as that in 1982-3, can dominate the circulation Drosdowsky 1993, F n re d th IendA ia uns tr O al c ia enanw north and and precipitation patterns over tropical South ericksen and i B nt aelrgo ( v e. ign . d , A sis m te e n ri t c ly a . h T ig hhe le r v ea el l -t o im f e sk iflol, resc im as itlsarhtaovethhaatdobatac in oend
scto th ara ti rsetc ic te s d ( M mo OdSe ) l . f S or m ec it ahstadnad ta are called model output 1994). The state of ENSO is only one of many factors obs terevveedn SS gi T v en a perfect SRSoTp el feow re sckais ( t 1 -9 9i7 .e ) ., shtohweu (K se r d is hn to aKfuom re acrae st t al t . h1e99I5n ) d . ian summer monsoon m to oid ts elEuNsS ed O -a r t -N t C he E P cu rrent operational atmospheric Ward et al. (1993) discuss the useful level of skill In their study e , la ftoerd ty r -a fi i need vne fa lylspastu te brsn ta snfto ia rlpa ra d c ju ti sctamleun se ts . m of a d tr eop in ic a re l al n o ti r m th e A by f ri tchaenU fo KreM ca e st tse or th ol aotgihcaavleOb ff eiecnee (h xianm dc in aesd ts ) fo bra se th d e on specif e ie a d rs ( oofbsseeravseodn ) alSS fo Trew ca esrtess re in la ctei on 1s9h8i6p . swTih th esgeloabrael ly ladrigsetlry ib ubtaesdedSSoTn , SS st Tatiin st itchaelm ea o ch d el sism imulation wapserrieopde at 1e9d50 th -i 9r4 te . enEa ti cmh es s , e w as hoenraelpSoonue th n t. A O tla vnetrict , hean la dstade re claad ti e v , eltyhesm re aalll -ti EmNeSfOo re ccoam sts u initial co unldaitt io io nnswatso st easrttiemdatwe ith th e s lig mha tl gynid tu if dfee ren otfvhaalviedah te addahisnkdic ll asstismim lar adteotwhiatthotbhtea in seadme fr osm ta t c is rto ic sasl -v av anrp ia re ti doincs ta ble and therefore random atmospheric methods. The chief limitation to further progress is a rai enrfaag ll edf or tion th ca elcm ul oad te e l. thTehebtehsitr te meondseilmeus la ti t m io antseao re flsaecaksoonf ( gJluonbeal th tr roopu ic gahlSSeSpTtefm or beecra ) s . tsAvcaclu id ra f te orfo th re ecawse ts ttgylpoibcaall ly v , a a ri l th ea ocuhghgitvheen seasonal SST pattern. Quite of ENSO would help, but would in most years be well, it sho at w io ends in sem as oodneall re ra piln ic fa altledpa th tt eeronbs se qruvietdeifn al sluffo fi rceiceanst. tsAatrmeoaslp so heu ri scedd , ynbaumtitchaely -m oondleyl -h baavseedusreaf in ul T re hgu io s ns fo rofptrheec ip w it s a ystematic or tlido , n -t rhee la tmesdpaa ti pap ll l y ic var odel pre a d ti i o ct nys in g in biases. skill with lead times of a month or less before the require some kind ions wmoaun ld y r th ai antf al hlusm ea asnoin ty ( Fhoa ll sanidncerteaals . ed1 99 th 1 e ). Istuisscaelpsto ib p il o it s y si b o le f g ki ennderoaf te bdi as byadajuM stm OS ofteacdhjnuisqtumee . n T ts h , e perhaps those tropical west Africa to drought through the pro production of operat einot places a huge bnue rd ed en foorntthhiesg co re vsesrivoevreerdu re c c ti eonntd in ecnaedaers -. coTahsitsalcw ha e n st geAfirn ic a th nefolraensdtM because each time the m na oldd el y n is a m ch ic aanlge fo d r , eacansetwmsoedteo ls f s (e u . r g fa ., ceElb ta ohuinrdaan ry dhGaosnbgee1n99s6 ho ) w to nhbayve se v th e e ra lpo au te tnhtoirasla ne O ed S e statistics must be calculated to provide the to weaken the north African monsoon. More studies nneacleys si d sa s ad ojfu ry Msm tm u e lt n id ts e . c T ad h a is l re en qu se ir m es bltehsetgoe ne orbatta io in natnhdetorfopp ic oasls ib nloer th re g A io fr n ic aalnarnatihnrfo al p l, ogaesniwce ll inafs lu efnocr es on fundamental OiSmp st rao ti vse ti m cs enatnsdtuond th eerssecom re osdtehles , nseuecdh fo as r reg W ion ar sdwe it thaml. a ( r 1 gi 9n9a3l ) seaalssoonadlisrcau in sfsaltlh , e a re sk n il eleo de odt . her tahboosvee . related to the flux adjustments, discussed m tim ad eefboy re c th a e st sff real UK orM th et eeon ro olro th g e ic aasltOBfrfaizcielsw in ectes1e9 as 8o7n . dro Kungohwt le p d re gdeico ti fonEsNS in O m is a n in ysup ff airctisenotffotrher eg w io o n rl adlT se hviesreisa relatively dry area, subject to intermittent lbeescsaium se p o in rt a th n ese regions its influence is either small or Hastenr dartohuagnhdt. c T ol hleasbeorfao to re rs c a ( set . s g , ., asHw as etlelnarsatthho1s9e95b ) y , p ea ro st foBurnad zil an t than other factors. For instance, north are mainly statistical, although real-time dynamical patterns ( lFyo ll iandf lu west A nd eentcael. d frican w 19 b9y1 , H tro ept ic saela so Ant la ra nitn ic fa ll astenrath 1995, WSaSrTeM for eetceaosrtosl og hiacvae ard based on tropi lcbaOlAfefe ic n e . mTahdee st saitn is ctei cal 19f9o4 re ca bsy ts tahreeS1S9T 97 ) i . n In th aeddtirtoipoinc , aplaIrn ts d i of the Sahel are affected by on ENSO SSTs. On tl aanv ti ecraSgSeT , t a ro npoim ca allyAp tl aatn te ti rcnsSaSnTdsF Si o m ll i a la nrd ly , eltocaall . SS 19 T9p1a , tt Bar anns to Onceaannd (P Sam lm ith er11999866 ). , h re agvieonaboofuSt ou tw th ic Aem th e e ri cian , fl aule th nocue gh ofexEtN re SmOeE fo NrStOhs is , A no urstth ra w li eas , tnooftA ab ulsyt ra ilniatih er e ns influence precipitation in such as that in 1982-3, can dominate the circulation Drosdowsky 1993, F n re d th IendA ia uns tr O al c ia enanw north and and precipitation patterns over tropical South ericksen and i B nt aelrgo ( v e. ign . d , A sis m te e n ri t c ly a . h T ig hhe le r v ea el l -t o im f e sk iflol, resc im as itlsarhtaovethhaatdobatac in oend
ABSTRACT