ABSTRACT
This chapter introduces two important concepts for tourism analysis: forecasting and demand. Both are common words, but the relationship between them may not be immediately apparent. Forecasting, of course, refers to making predictions. The majority of forecasts made by tourism analysts arguably concern the demand for tourism commodities. An understanding of the concept of demand and of its various connotations can help deepen your understanding of the practice and problems of forecasting tourism trends. Conversely, an appreciation of the nature of forecasting can shed light on how demand is studied and measured. The chapter begins by describing the nature of forecasting and some of the general issues associated with selecting a forecasting model. The nature of demand is then considered, with special attention given to both the definitions of demand and the forces that cause demand to change. Finally, several forecasting models are described that illustrate some of the more common approaches used in forecasting tourism trends.
