ABSTRACT
In scenario analysis, one gains insight not from the absolute consequences of any one scenario, but from the changes that occur between a set of scenarios. By this means it is possible to infer certain causal relations; the introduction of a particular policy causes certain identifiable consequences. Scenarios are performed that investigate the sensitivity of the model to different assumptions about rural-urban migration. Agricultural development is at the heart of any development process. Increases in yields will, for a given population, result in less land being needed for food production, thus lessening the pressure on the forests. Economic growth across the world causes a rising demand for tropical hardwoods. Asia's commercial reserves are the lowest compared with their production and thus practically no expansion of logging activity is possible and, indeed, output declines after 1995. A range of different policies have been analysed which cover different approaches to forest conservation and development issues.
