ABSTRACT
This chapter discusses the role of policy issues and ideology in determining voting behavior. This is the rational-activist model introduced in Chapter 1. The main focus is on presidential elections, with an emphasis on the most recent presidential contest in 2016. Voters tend to make consistent partisan choices. Even from one presidential election to the next, very few switch their vote from one political party to another. Those who are less certain—the floaters—tend to be the least informed. Issues and ideology matter. Liberals vote predictably Democratic while conservatives vote predictably Republican. Partisanship also matters; increasingly rare conservative Democrats and liberal Republicans often decide in favor of their party identification. At the macrolevel, election outcomes are influenced by the policy preferences of voters and candidates. Other factors being equal, elections are won by the candidate closest to the median voter. In congressional elections, moderates within each party tend to win more votes. In presidential elections, moderation matters, while other variables matter such as the state of the economy.
