ABSTRACT
This chapter focuses on the simpler measures, such as the distribution of election outcomes and averages during and over the extent of careers. Tracking year-by-year distributions of outcomes is, of course, important, but it may create a false impression of the safety of Members during their careers. Before beginning a review of election results, it is important to explain the practices used in handling data. Indicator used to track the fortunes of incumbents is the average vote percentage they receive each year. The average vote percentage for contested incumbents increased from 1946 through 1988. Incumbents may be more successful in raising their vote percentage over their career such that they end up with higher career averages, higher ending percentages, and fewer exits via a loss. To the extent there is considerable diversity of incumbent experiences there are reasons to question discussions of the incumbent experience.
