ABSTRACT

The presidential vote is the simplest and most available measure of reactions across the nation to party candidates. The several issues of concern have been the ability of House Members to separate them from the presidential vote. The essence of the incumbent effect is that incumbents are able to insulate themselves from district partisanship. The ability of incumbents to separate themselves from the partisanship of districts can be assessed in two ways. One is the ability to run ahead of the presidential vote in the district. The other is to create a split-outcome or a different partisan winner for the House and presidential election within the district. As the separation of House–presidential results increases, the result is more split-outcomes. The incumbency literature are able to separate their vote from the district normal vote and are able to persist when the district goes for the presidential candidate of the other party.