ABSTRACT
Information on levels, composition, and spatial distribution of population is generally available and of good quality, primarily from the ten-yearly census and the Registrar General's annual reports. Assumptions concerning population are behind most important planning policies. The predicted population level is an important input into forecasts of housing demand and thus housing land requirements. It is also important in creating local demand for goods and services, and thus affects the level of local economic activity. More generally, population assumptions underlie investment decisions on schools, hospitals, roads, recreational facilities, and power and water supplies. Clearly, as many of these facilities are restricted to a particular age group, not only are aggregate population forecasts required but also disaggregations according to age, sex, and occupation. The aggregate methods are used to forecast total or aggregate population, usually for large areas. The chapter provides information on trend-line methods; comparative method; ratio methods; and multiple regression method.
