ABSTRACT
Whenever we are asked to "estimate" something, we typically rely on similar past experiences that might fit into a specific condition or situation. Hopefully we may also be able to utilize data, in some form, to help we predict a potential problem. By knowing how some similar problem reacted, we usually go with our best estimate. The question is, how do estimate the probability that a particular event will take place? Here is a very simple, uncomplicated, and straightforward way to estimate simple probabilities. Using a scale of 1 to 10, consider each problem by itself, and then rate each problem as to how certain or uncertain that it will occur. We then calculate and prioritize each of the calculated total risk factor (TRF) values by arranging them in order from highest to lowest. The total risk factor is simply the product of the occurrence (O), severity (S), and detection (D) rankings.
