ABSTRACT
Do you think the world is getting worse? Is crime on the rise and is the world becoming less safe? In this chapter I will address long-term changes in human societies. We will discover that the majority of the world population is rather pessimistic about social change, believing that the world is indeed getting worse (12.1). In light of these public perceptions, I will review two “objective” societal developments. One is the growing wealth and improving health of human populations (12.2), another is that societies have become more peaceful and safer places to live (12.3). How can we understand these patterns of socio-economic progress? I will review the idea that, over time, cultures have become more rational, i.e., more efficient collective enterprises, thereby creating more wealth, health, peace and safety (12.4). I will review the empirics of this rationalization trend, focusing on three key indicators, namely: technological progress (12.5), the growth of science and education (12.6) and increasing rationality across domains in society (12.7). I will then take these two broader trends (i.e., socio-economic progress and rationalization) together, identifying them as interrelated dimensions of the overarching modernization trend. Subsequently, I will examine the consequences of modernization for value change (12.8) and population structures (12.9). At the end of the chapter I will reflect on the puzzle that people’s perceptions of societal trends are more pessimistic than their view of their personal lives, and I will address the underlying dynamics of the rationalization process (12.10).
